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AUSTIN TXPUBLIC DRIVERLESS — Day 152
DRIVERLESS3 CITIES LIVE
TESLA FLEET35+ VEHICLES TRACKED
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@ROBOTAXIloading...
AUSTIN TXPUBLIC DRIVERLESS — Day 152
DRIVERLESS3 CITIES LIVE
TESLA FLEET35+ VEHICLES TRACKED
Digital Energy TerminalTesla ecosystem

ENERGY → COMPUTE → INTELLIGENCE → MONEY. SHADOWMODE TRACKS TESLA'S PHYSICAL LAYER — THE POWER-AND-COMPUTE BOUND PRODUCTS THAT ABSORB GRID LOAD AND SHIP AUTONOMY.

Robotaxi
live
21 CITIES

3 DRIVERLESS · 35+ FLEET TRACKED

COMPUTE ON WHEELSSRC
Energy
live
8.8 GWH Q1'26MISS

MISS VS CONSENSUS · MEGAPACK DEAL LEDGER

GRID RELEASE VALVESRC
Semi
ramping
965/1,067 HVIP

CONTRACT LEDGER · CONVERSION LIVE · STALE RESERVATIONS FLAGGED

DIESEL → GRID LOADSRC
Optimus
planned
PROD JUL–AUG '26NO VOL TARGET

FREMONT LINE CONVERSION · NO 2026 VOLUME TARGET

LABOR → ELECTRIFIEDSRC
OPTIMUS PRODUCTION
Q1 2026 CALL · SOURCED
MODEL S/X LINE ENDS
EARLY MAY 2026SRC
FREMONT OPTIMUS PRODUCTION· INITIAL OUTPUT "QUITE SLOW" — MUSK, Q1 CALL
LATE JUL / AUG 2026SRC
GIGA TEXAS OPTIMUS FACTORY· SECOND LINE · GEN 4 VOLUME TARGET
SUMMER 2027SRC
USEFUL WORK IN FACTORIES· MUSK ADMISSION — TRACK CONVERSION HONESTLY
ZERO (JAN 2026)SRC
ENERGY PANEL SEMI LEDGER
DEPLOYMENT PULSEROBOTAXI OPS
21
Cities
Being tracked
9
States
With robotaxi activity
35+
Fleet
Vehicles deployed
12/15
Permits
Received across markets
6
Public programs
Test programs launched
0
Testing
Driverless in progress
Driverless
152
Lead market
Austin, TX · Public driverless operation

Cybercab — The Future is Autonomous

US Robotaxi Map
Shadowmode deployment pulse · self-hosted SVG
Shadowmode
21 cities · 3 driverless/testing
DLDLDL

Active markets

21/21

Pulse status

LIVE

Austin88%
Dallas79%
San Francisco71%
Houston71%
Oakland63%
San Jose63%
Mesa, Tempe50%
Las Vegas50%
Phoenix42%
Los Angeles25%
Driverless Testing Tracking 25%+
9
States
With Robotaxi activity
21
Cities
Being tracked
21
Active Cities
With any progress
6
Public Programs
Test programs launched
35+
Est. Vehicles
Deployed total
3
Driverless
No safety monitor

Robotaxi deployment accelerating: 2 cities showed new activity in the last 60 days, with 15 projected to reach driverless within 9 months.

Velocity

Accelerating

Active (60d)

2 cities

Near-term

15 in 6-9mo

Highlights

3 signals

3 driverless markets active2 new test launches this quarter5 AV-friendly states in pipeline
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Updated: —
More
Legend:
Completed
In Progress
Not Started
Unknown
N/A

Deployment Progress by City

LocationInsuranceAppliedPermitOperator AdsFleet AdsApprovalRoute ValApp AccessTest LaunchExpandedVehiclesDriverlessProgress
Texas
Austin
3
88%
Dallas
3
79%
Houston
3
71%
San Antonio
25%
California
San Francisco
2
71%
Oakland
2
63%
San Jose
2
63%
Los Angeles
25%
San Diego
25%
Arizona
Mesa, Tempe
50%
Phoenix
42%
Florida
Miami
1
25%
Orlando
1
25%
Tampa
1
25%
Jacksonville
1
15%
Nevada
Las Vegas
50%
New York
Brooklyn
1
13%
Queens
1
13%
Massachusetts
Boston
1
21%
Colorado
Denver
20%
Illinois
Chicago
20%
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Investor Intelligence

Leading Indicators & Risk Analysis

Readiness Index

Weighted deployment score (0-100)

National Avg

40

6-Month Trend

6mo agoNow

City Readiness Rankings

1
Austin, TX
92
2
Dallas, TX
84
3
Houston, TX
79
4
San Francisco, CA
63
5
Oakland, CA
60
6
San Jose, CA
60

State Averages

Texas

73

Arizona

52

California

49

Nevada

43

Colorado

23

Illinois

23

Score weights: Regulatory (30%) + Insurance (20%) + App Access (15%) + Fleet (15%) + Driverless (20%)

Time-to-Driverless Projection

Estimated timeline based on Austin baseline

3

Live

13

3-5 months

2

6-9 months

0

9-12 months

3

>12 months

Driverless Active

Austin, TXLIVE
Dallas, TXLIVE
Houston, TXLIVE

3-5 Months

Mesa, Tempe, AZlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environmentRegulatory approval secured
Phoenix, AZlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environmentRegulatory approval secured
Los Angeles, CAlowConfidence
Mixed regulatory environment
Oakland, CAmediumConfidence
Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active
San Diego, CAlowConfidence
Mixed regulatory environment
San Francisco, CAmediumConfidence
Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active
San Jose, CAmediumConfidence
Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active
Denver, COlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Miami, FLlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Orlando, FLlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Tampa, FLlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Las Vegas, NVlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
San Antonio, TXlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment

6-9 Months

Chicago, ILlowConfidence
Boston, MAlowConfidence

Projections based on Austin timeline (~6 months to driverless), adjusted for regulatory environment, current progress, and milestone completion. Low confidence = early stage or restrictive regulation.

Narrative Pressure Index

Market patience & execution momentum

Pressure

Moderate

Proof Velocity

3.3

milestones/mo

Half-Life

Fading

66d since milestone

Reg Exposure

Moderate

33% restrictive

Narrative Drift

Story-ledMixedExecution-led

Execution-Led (milestones)

What Changes the Stock

  • ✓First city achieves fully driverless operation
  • ✓3+ cities with public test programs
  • ○Second market achieves driverless status

Last Catalyst Impact

Execution milestones move the stock. Promises don't.

Market Read

  • •Execution velocity supports bull thesis on robotaxi timeline.
  • •Multiple proof points within single quarter strengthens narrative.
  • •Watch for competitor responses to accelerating Tesla rollout.

Derived from deployment data. Not investment advice.

Rollout Velocity

Accelerating

Last Mo

0

→

This Mo

2

60-Day Activity2 cities
Quarter Launches2 vs 0
Driverless Events3

Momentum compounding. Watch for network effects.

Safety Signals

Preempting the safety question

Excellent

630K

Est. Miles (Driverless)

0

Incidents (90d)

N/A

Days Since Last

No major safety incidents reported in Tesla robotaxi testing. The driverless operation in Austin began Dec 14, 2024 with third-party route and safety validation completed prior to launch.

Data Confidence

Medium

Mile estimates based on fleet size × avg daily miles. Incident tracking from public reports only.

Why we show this: Safety skepticism is the #1 criticism. Transparently tracking what we know (and don't know) disarms critics and builds credibility without overclaiming.

Public Trust Signal

External validation & legitimacy

Trust Score

66

Moderate
Regulatory Permits
3states approved
Insurance Coverage
$5Mliability per incident
Third-Party Validation
1Safety audit completed
Public Operations
3driverless markets (TX)

NHTSA Engineering Analysis (EA26002) active • CA: supervised-only, no AV permit (CPUC)

Analyst assessment from public sources — not a live feed; updated periodically. As of Jun 2026: Tesla runs driverless rides in Austin (since Jan 2026) plus Dallas & Houston (since Apr 2026); the Bay Area service is supervised-only (no CA AV permit). A formal NHTSA Engineering Analysis (EA26002) covers ~3.2M FSD vehicles.

Data Confidence

Medium

Measures "permission to scale" via external validation (permits, insurance, audits) — not Tesla claims. Updated: 2026-06-19

Economic Impact

Revenue potential & TAM analysis

Annualized TAM

$8.6M

95

Total Fleet

1.1K

Daily Rides

$90K

Rev/Vehicle

4

Active Cities

Current SAM vs TAM100.0% penetration

Current (Active Markets)

$8.6M

Total Addressable

$8.6M

Revenue by City

1Austin, TX
medium$3.2M
Fleet: 35Rides/day: 403Rev/vehicle: $90K
2Oakland, CA
low$1.8M
Fleet: 20Rides/day: 230Rev/vehicle: $90K
3San Francisco, CA
low$1.8M
Fleet: 20Rides/day: 230Rev/vehicle: $90K
4San Jose, CA
low$1.8M
Fleet: 20Rides/day: 230Rev/vehicle: $90K

Estimates based on: Fleet size from public reports/filings, avg rides/vehicle/day from industry benchmarks (~8-15 rides for active fleets), avg fare $15-25 per ride. TAM includes cities with any robotaxi activity.

Regulatory Friction

State-level AV policy environment

5

AV-Friendly

2

Mixed

2

Restrictive

AV-Friendly- Streamlined permits, supportive legislation
AZ2 cities
~85d avg permit
CO1 cities
FL4 cities
NV1 cities
~8d avg permit
TX4 cities
~60d avg permit
Mixed- Some regulatory complexity
CA5 cities
~180d avg permit
IL1 cities
Restrictive- Significant regulatory barriers
MA1 cities
~240d avg permit
NY2 cities
~365d avg permit

Key insight: Tesla isn't necessarily slow - regulatory environments vary significantly. TX, AZ, and NV have ~8-85 day permit timelines vs CA at ~180 days and NY at 365+.

Rollout Velocity

Accelerating

Last Mo

0

→

This Mo

2

60-Day Activity2 cities
Quarter Launches2 vs 0
Driverless Events3

Momentum compounding. Watch for network effects.

Irreversibility

Inevitable

Who has made a decision they can't walk back?

●
Regulatory

TX S.B. 2807 framework active

●
Insurance

Multi-state underwriting live

●
Corporate

Fleet CapEx deployed

●
Operational

Driverless ops running

Reversal CostPROHIBITIVE
Last CommitmentDec 14, 2024

Tesla • Austin driverless ops

Capital deployed. Narrative is over. Expansion is timing.