SHADOWMODE

Storage is the grid's release valve. Track whether Tesla is actually building the bottleneck-breaker — or just talking about it.

Compiled 2026-06-20 · jeff · power-is-the-bottleneck thesis

Q1'26 storage MISS
8.8 GWh deployed vs ~14.4 GWh consensus — down 38% QoQ. Show it; don't hide it.
Q1'26 margin asterisk
Reported energy gross margin 39.5% inflated by one-time warranty/tariff items. Normalized est. ~28–32% — do not trend the headline number.
IRA credits in margin
$756M (FY2024) vs $115M (FY2023) embedded in energy margin — flag separately from ops improvement.
SRC
8.8 GWh
Latest Qtr Deployed
MISS vs ~14.4 consensus · -38% QoQ
SRC
46.7 GWh
FY2025 TTM
+49% YoY
SRC
39.5%
Energy Gross Margin
Reported — includes one-time warranty/tariff items
SRC
28–32%
Normalized Margin (est.)
Normalized est. — use for trend baseline

Storage Deployed (GWh)

QuarterGWhNoteSource
FY202431.4+114% YoYSRC
Q1 202510.4—SRC
Q2 20259.6—SRC
Q3 202512.5Record at timeSRC
Q4 202514.2RecordSRC
FY202546.7+49% YoYSRC
Q1 20268.8MISS vs ~14.4 consensus · -38% QoQSRC

Megafactory Capacity

Lathrop, CA
operational
40 GWh/yroperationalSRC
Shanghai
~8 GWh deployed 2025
40 GWh/yrrampingSRC
Houston, TX
Announced Sept 2025 — not operational
50 GWh/yrplannedSRC

Megapack Deal Ledger

3 sourced rows
CustomerCapacityLocationStatusDateSource
Intersect Power15.3 GWhCA + TXannouncedJul 2024SRC
Matrix Renewables500 MW / 1 GWhScotlandunder constructionDec 2025SRC
Nucor (Ameresco / AEPCO)50 MW / 200 MWhKingman, AZoperationalOct 2025SRC